基于粗糙集的经济预警规则发现

应用粗糙集的理论和方法对经济预警有关数据进行分析,挖掘其中隐含的有用信息,提取规则并对规则进行约简,从而求取表达经济预警信息的最小决策规则,为经济预警有用信息的获取提供一种有效的方法.     

模糊多属性群决策一致性分析研究

群决策过程中各成员可能以不同的方式给出决策信息,讨论了四种不同决策信息的统一方法,设置了模糊环境下进行一致性判断的准则,介绍了梯形模糊数在群决策过程中的运算方法,举例说明了这种方法的应用步骤.     

Parametric importance of criteria and intervals of value tradeoff uncertainty in the analysis of multicriteria problems

Multicriteria decision-making problems under bounded (above, below, or from both sides) continuous or discrete criteria are considered. Methods for comparing variants of solutions using the information accumulated in the form of interval estimates of replacing the values of some criteria by the values of others (such replacements are called tradeoffs; in other words, this can be considered as a compensation of the deterioration of some criteria by improving the values of others) are proposed along with simple consistency conditions of such information. The issue of constructing the set of nondominated variants is discussed.     

基于集对分析的混合型多属性决策方法的研究

针对属性权重信息不完全且属性值为实数、区间数和模糊语言值相结合的混合型多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于集对分析的多属性决策方法.该方法所需计算量较少,方法简单,易于计算.最后通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management

Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) is a framework for evaluating decision options against multiple criteria. Numerous techniques for solving an MCA problem are available. This paper applies MCA to six water management decision problems. The MCA methods tested include weighted summation, range of value, PROMTHEE II, Evamix and compromise programming. We show that different MCA methods were in strong agreement with high correlations amongst rankings. In the few cases where strong disagreement between MCA methods did occur it was due to presence of mixed ordinal-cardinal data in the evaluation matrix. The results suggest that whilst selection of the MCA technique is important more emphasis is needed on the initial structuring of the decision problem, which involves choosing criteria and decision options.     

衰减信道下的决策融合问题

本文针对国际上近几年兴起的研究热点——无线传感器网络在信道衰减下的决策融合问题进行探讨。分析了已有传感器决策融合问题算法的结构,在已知信道传输错误概率的条件下,将信道无传输错误的分析方法推广到信道衰减的情况,对传输错误和融合律的关系进行了深入分析。对给定融合律的网络决策融合问题,获得了最优容错传感器观测量化器的必要条件并设计了迭代算法。在没有增加问题的计算复杂度的情况下,得到了最优观测量化器。与国际上现有结果不同,新结果不要求传感器决策条件独立,也不要求各传感器与融合中心之间的信道相互独立,具有更加广泛的使用范围。     

Progressive methods in multiple criteria decision analysis

This is a summary of the author’s Ph.D. thesis, defended on 8 October 2007 at the University of Luxembourg and the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons, under the joint supervision of Raymond Bisdorff and Marc Pirlot. The thesis is written in English and is available from the author upon request. The work is situated in the field of multiple criteria decision analysis. It mostly deals with what we call progressive methods, i.e., iterative procedures presenting partial conclusions to the decision maker that can be refined at further steps of the analysis. Such progressive methods have been studied in the context of multiattribute value theory and outranking methods.      

福建省科技投入强度的预测预警研究

本文在分析福建省历年R＆D强度及特征的基础上．构建了R＆D强度的灰色预测模型和增长型曲线外推模型,并利用它们构建了组合预测模型,同时以全国平均水平为依据构建了预警系统,得到2008—2010年的R＆D强度预测值分别为1．0321％、1．1186％、1．2115％,预警结果3年都是巨警。结果表明,福建省的R＆D强度在2010年达不到1．7％的水平,这与福建省“十一五”R＆D投入强度的既定目标相去甚远。随后,文章提出了福建省实现“十一五”科技投入强度目标的条件要求,为政府制订和调整科技投入政策提供参考。     

财务脆弱性问题的报童模型

在品牌渠道体系的建设过程中,除了对利润最大化的追求以外,财务上的脆弱性／柔性会极大地影响着经销商的决策心理和商业行为实践。本文着重考察单位产品利润率和剩余产品处理费用对经销商决策心理和行为的影响,通过分析零售商的收益分布状况,再基于展望理论的思路,建立了参考点取决于损益状况的报童展望模型。最后证明,财务脆弱性将更大地发挥损失厌恶型决策者的保守心理。